Title: EUR/USD: Bulls push for another test of 1.0300

August 9, 2022 04:53 AM ET

By: AnalysisWatch

The EUR/USD rises for the second consecutive session, extending the optimism that prevailed at the beginning of the week, while the dollar continues to shed Tuesday's gains after the release of economic data.

However, the pair's recovery so far remains within the broader consolidation range of 1.0100-1.0300 that has been in place since mid-July, always against the backdrop of recession rumors on both sides of the Atlantic and speculation about the next steps regarding a rate hike by both the Fed and the ECB.

In Europe, no data is scheduled on Tuesday, while on the other side of the pond, smaller releases are expected, namely the NFIB Business Optimism Index and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index.

The EUR/USD currency pair is so far unchanged between 1.0100 and 1.0300 against the backdrop of changing risk appetite trends.

Meanwhile, the European currency's price action is expected to be closely linked to the dollar's dynamics, geopolitical concerns, fragmentation worries, and the divergence between the Fed and the ECB.

Negative for the euro is growing speculation about a regional recession, which appears to be supported by fading sentiment indicators and a looming slowdown in some fundamentals.

The ECB's rate hike cycle continues. Italian elections in September Risks of fragmentation as the ECB normalizes monetary conditionsThe impact of the war in Ukraine on growth prospects and inflation in the region.

So far, the spot rate has gained 0.47% to 1.0238 and faces the next upside barrier at 1.0293 (the monthly high of August 2), followed by 1.0385 (the 55-day SMA) and finally 1.0615 (the weekly high of June 27). On the flip side, a break below 1.0096 (weekly low of July 26) would imply a target of 1.0000 (psychological mark) en route to 0.9952 (2022 low of July 14).

Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Final Inflation Rate (Wednesday) – EMU Industrial Production (Friday).