Title: Dollar Rises as Treasury Yields Hit 2-Year High; BoJ Disappoints Hawks

Jan 18, 2022 03:17AM ET

By: AnalysisWatch

The dollar rose in early trading in Europe on Tuesday, rallying as inflation fears drove US 10-year government bond yields to their highest level in more than two years.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US bond rose as high as 1.86% overnight, a level it last reached when virtually no one outside China had heard of COVID-19. The two-year benchmark yield, which is more sensitive to expectations for short-term interest rates, also crossed the 1% mark for the first time in two years.

At 3 a.m. ET (0800 GMT), the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of advanced economic currencies, was 0.1% higher at 95.287.

The dollar briefly returned above the 115 yen level after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank had not discussed the possibility of raising interest rates, as had been reported in newspapers last week. This was despite the fact that the bank raised its inflation forecast for the next two years slightly, at 1.1%. This is still well below the bank's target of 2%.

Earlier this month, the dollar reached a five-year high against the yen on expectations that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy much more than the Bank of Japan this year.The Fed's first monetary policy meeting of the year is next week, and policymakers went into their usual blackout period ahead of that meeting.

The euro was also little changed against the dollar at $1.1402 ahead of the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for January.

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Title: Oil prices hit 7-year highs as tight supply bites

Jan 18, 2022 07:06AM ET

By: AnalysisWatch

Benchmark oil prices rose to their highest level since 2014 on Tuesday as possible supply disruptions due to attacks in the Middle East added to an already tight supply outlook.

At 1154 GMT, Brent crude futures were up $0.88, or 1%, at $87.36 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $1.23, or 1.5%, at $85.05 a barrel. Trading on Monday was subdued due to the holiday in the US.

Both benchmarks hit their highest levels since October 2014 at the start of Tuesday's trading.

Supply concerns have increased this week after Yemen's Houthi group attacked the United Arab Emirates, escalating hostilities between the Iran-allied group and a coalition led by Saudi Arabia.

Following drone and missile attacks that triggered explosions in tanker trucks and killed three people, the Houthi movement warned it could attack more facilities, while the UAE said it reserved the right to "respond to these terrorist attacks".

UAE oil company ADNOC said it had activated contingency plans to ensure uninterrupted supplies to its local and international customers following an incident at its fuel depot in Mussafah.

Rising tensions between OPEC+ members Russia and Ukraine are also contributing to geopolitical price premiums.

In addition, some producers within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are struggling to meet their allowable production capacities due to underinvestment and outages. OPEC has agreed with Russia and its allies to produce an additional 440,000 barrels per day each month.

Opec will publish its oil market report for January at 1230 GMT.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect oil stocks in OECD countries to fall to their lowest level since 2000 by the summer, pushing Brent oil prices to $100 later this year.

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Title: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes $1,804 and $1,800 as US Treasury yields spike

 Jan 18, 2022 4:40AM ET

By: AnalysisWatch

Ahead of next week's FOMC decision, Fed policymakers have gone into a blackout period. What's moving US Treasury yields, the dollar, and gold? With markets back in full swing on Tuesday, investors are anticipating an escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which could send the risk premium soaring and push the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond to a two-year high of 1.85%.US interest rates have also jumped, pushing the dollar up 50 basis points on speculation of an aggressive Fed rate hike in March.

In the absence of relevant US economic data to be released on Tuesday, Fed sentiment and geopolitical tensions will continue to influence gold prices. Higher yields tend to weigh on the non-interest-bearing gold price.

The Technical Confluences Detector shows gold testing bullish commitments at $1,811, which is strong resistance at the SMA10 on a daily basis and the SMA100 on a four-hour basis.

The next support awaits at the $50 DMA of $1,808, below which a tight cluster of healthy cushions is forming at $1,804. At this point, the daily SMA200 coincides with the 61.8% weekly Fibonacci factor and the daily S3 pivot point.

The last line of defense for gold bulls is at $1,800, the 38.2% Fibonacci limit on a monthly basis.

On the other hand, the previous day's low at $1,813 offers immediate resistance, followed by the intersection of the SMA5 and the 4-hour SMA10.

The 23.6% Fibonacci weekly high at $1,820 will prove to be the next significant upside barrier.

The bulls will then attack the previous day's high at $1,823.

Title: Nasdaq futures tumble as rising yields spark tech rout

Jan 18, 2022 07:15AM ET

By: AnalysisWatch

Futures tracking the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index slumped nearly 2% on Tuesday as traders returned from a long holiday weekend to brace for a tighter stance by the US Federal Reserve ahead of a meeting next week.

Interest-rate-sensitive tech stocks came under pressure as two-year government bond yields, which reflect short-term interest rate expectations, rose above 1% for the first time since February 2020.

In pre-market trading, US-listed mega-cap tech companies, including Google Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft, were last down between 1.5% and 2.4% in pre-market trading.

Later in the week, a US Senate panel will debate a bill aimed at curbing the app stores of companies that some lawmakers say exert too much market control, including Alphabet's Apple and Google.

A monthly survey by Deutsche Bank found that the majority of respondents believe US tech stocks are in a bubble as investors remain bearish on restrictive policies and higher yields.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell for the second week in a row as negative sentiment toward technology and disappointing results from major banks weighed on US indices just before earnings season began.

Since the start of 2022, the S & P technology index has fallen 4.8%.

The Dow e-minis fell 246 points or 0.69%, the S & P 500 e-minis fell 49.75 points or 1.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 e-minis fell at 6:47 a.m. ET by 264.5 points, or 1.7%.

Among banks, Goldman Sachs reports later in the day, and Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will release their fourth-quarter results on Wednesday. Netflix will kick off coverage among major tech stocks on January 20.

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Title: India stocks lower at the close of trade; Nifty 50 down 1.07%

Jan 18, 2022 05:45AM ET

By: AnalysisWatch

Indian stocks were lower after the nearby on Tuesday as misfortunes in the land, auto, and metal areas drove shares lower.

At the nearby on the NSE, the Nifty 50 slipped 1.07% while the BSE Sensex 30 file fell 0.90%

AXIS Bank Ltd was the best performer on the Nifty 50, rising 1.76%, or 12.55 points, to close at 725.20 points. HDFC Bank Ltd gained 0.51%, or 7.75 points, to close at 1529.25, while ICICI Bank Ltd rose 0.46%, or 3.80 points, to 823.10 in late trade.

Tata Consumer Products Ltd was the worst performer, falling 4.40%, or 33.65 points, to close at 731.45 in late trade. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd dropped 4.24%, or 350.35 points, to 7915.15, while UltraTech Cement Ltd fell 3.81%, or 300.10 points, to 7570.00.

The top gainers on the BSE Sensex 30 were AXIS Bank Ltd., up 1.83% at 725.60, HDFC Bank Ltd., up 0.53% at 1529.60, and ICICI Bank Ltd., up 0.48% at 823.35.

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd was the worst performer, falling 4.05% to 7930.25 in late trade. UltraTech Cement Ltd lost 3.83% to close at 7566.25 and Tech Mahindra Ltd lost 3.54% to 1660.65 at the close of trade.

On the Indian National Stock Exchange, losses outweighed gains with 1396 to 412 and 25 ended unchanged; on the Bombay Stock Exchange, 2205 shares fell, 1104 rose and 80 ended unchanged.

The Indian VIX, which measures the implied volatility of Nifty 50 options, rose 6.05% to 17.7200.

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Title: Gold Down, but Gets Small Boost from Sharp Drop in U.S. Consumer Sentiment

Aug 16, 2021 12:07AM ET
By: AnalysisWatch

Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia, however stayed almost a one-week-high. A sharp drop in U.S. buyer feeling diminished worries about early resource tightening by the U.S. Central bank and gave the yellow metal a little lift.

Gold fates crawled down 0.04% to $1,777.55 by 12:02 AM ET (4:02 AM GMT), after hitting its most significant level since Aug. 6, or $1,780.82, prior to the meeting.

Information delivered last Friday said buyer feeling dropped to its most reduced levels since 2011. The Michigan shopper assumptions for August was 65.2, while the Michigan buyer estimation was 70.2.

The information pared wagers that the Fed will present resource tightening and financing cost climbs sooner than anticipated. Further information, including center retail deals and retail deals, will be delivered on Tuesday.

Financial backers presently anticipate Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at a virtual municipal event with instructors and understudies on Tuesday, just as the minutes from the Fed's last strategy meeting, which will be delivered a day after the fact.

In Asia Pacific, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will deliver the minutes from the most recent gathering and the most recent strategy choice on Tuesday and Wednesday separately.

Chinese information delivered before in the day likewise disillusioned. Modern creation rose 6.4% year-on-year in July, while retail deals developed 8.5% year-on-year around the same time.

Notwithstanding, gold expenses in China and India, an individual top buyer, rose to multi-month highs. Actual gold interest rose during the earlier week, with purchasers getting deals after costs fell across districts.

The international ramifications from the Afghan government's breakdown throughout the end of the week are likewise on financial backers' radars.

In other valuable metals, silver edged down 0.2%, platinum fell 0.7% and palladium was down 0.4%.

Title: USD/JPY climbs to over one-week tops, around mid-110.00s

Jul 23, 2021 10:31:37 AM GMT
By: AnalysisWatch

The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid tone via the primary 1/2 of the European consultation and shot to over one-week tops, round mid-110.00s in the final hour.

Following the preceding day's modest pullback, the USD/JPY pair attracted a few dip-shopping for close to the important thing 110.00 mental marks and constructed in this week's goodish rebound from the 109.00 neighborhood. This marked the 0.33 day of an advantageous flow the preceding 4 periods and turned into supported via way of means of the chance-on impulse the markets.

Investors now appeared to have set apart concerns approximately the capacity financial fallout from the fast-spreading Delta variation of the coronavirus. This turned into obvious from a typically advantageous tone across the fairness markets, which, in turn, undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and turned into visible as a key issue using the USD/JPY pair higher.

Bullish investors in addition took cues from a robust pick up the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield at the benchmark 10-yr US authorities bond climbed again towards the 1.30% threshold and acted as a tailwind for American dollar. This in addition contributed to the USD/JPY pair's intraday advantageous flow to the very best degree considering July 14.

Market individuals now look ahead to America's financial docket, providing the discharge of the flash US PMI prints. This, at the side of American bond yields, may impact the USD charge dynamics. Traders will in addition take cues from the wider marketplace chance sentiment for a few short-time period possibilities across the USD/JPY pair.

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Title: GBP/USD pares intraday losses, down little around mid-1.3700s

Jul 23, 2021 1:58:06 PM GMT 
By: AnalysisWatch

The GBP/USD pair remained at the protecting thru the early North American session, albeit has controlled to rebound around 30 pips from day by day lows and become remaining visible buying and selling round mid-1.3700s.

The pair attracted a few dip-shopping for close to the 1.3920 places and is now trying to construct in this week's sturdy rebound from sub-1.3600 levels, or the bottom degree on account that February. As buyers regarded beyond blended US macro releases, a subdued US greenback fee movement becomes visible as a key aspect that prolonged a few guides to the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, buyers now appeared to have set apart issues approximately the fast-spreading Delta variation of the coronavirus. This becomes obtrusive from a commonly fantastic tone across the fairness markets. The risk-on impulse undermined the safe-haven dollar and assisted the GBP/USD pair to locate a first-rate guide close to the 1.3720 area.

That said, a sturdy intraday pickup in the US Treasury bond yields helped restrict any deeper losses for the USD and capped profits for the GBP/USD pair. The USD moved little following the discharge of better-than-anticipated US flash Manufacturing PMI, which become in large part negated through an all at once sharp fall in the gauge for the offerings sector.

It will now be exciting to look if the GBP/USD pair is capable of capitalizing at the tried healing circulate or keeps with its warfare to transport again above the 1.3800 marks. Nevertheless, the pair stays on course to stop almost unchanged for the week.

HIGHLIGHTS

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Gold Falls as US Political Shift Fuels Reflation Bets, Crude Oil Rally Eases
January 08, 2021 at 8:29 AM, GMT

Gold and oil prices responded to political developments in the U.S, with investors favoring growth-linked assets over gold regardless of expanded inflation odds.
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Dollar Up, Holds Onto Biggest Gains in Over Two Years as Treasury Yields Rise

January 08, 2021 at 8:38 AM, GMT

The dollar edged up on Friday morning in Asia, clutching the biggest gains in more than months as a rise in U.S. Treasury yields led to some unwinding of bearish bets on the U.S. currency. The market evaded big moves as investors finish the week.
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Oil near 11-month highs on Saudi output cut pledge, equities rally

January 08, 2021 at 8:41  AM, GMT

Oil prices held close to 11-month highs on Friday and were on track for a strong weekly gain as Saudi Arabia's promise to cut output kept on floating market sentiment.

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European Stocks Higher; DAX at New Record on Growth Prospects

January 08, 2021 at 8:45 AM, GMT

European stock markets edged higher Friday, with investors looking past record deaths from Coronavirus and U.S. political turmoil, and pricing in a strong economic recovery in the second half of the year.

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Asian stocks soar to record highs on global recovery hopes

January 08, 2021 at 8:51 AM, GMT

Asian shares vaulted to record highs on Friday and Japan's Nikkei hit a three-decade top as investors looked past rising Covid cases and political unrest in the U.S. to focus on hopes for an economic recovery later in the year.

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S&P 500 Index Climbs To Record Highs Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls Report

January 08, 2021 at 8:55 AM, GMT

The S&P 500 index appears to be ready to stretch out its new record highs ahead of December’s NFP reports, as investors cheer the prospect of additional fiscal support.

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Nasdaq 100 Rally Inspires Hang Seng, ASX 200 Index to Trade Higher

January 08, 2021 at 9:00 AM, GMT 

US equities broadened gains as reflation trade continued, tech outperformed. Alibaba, Tencent under pressure in the wake of US blacklist threat; three telcos fell on NYSE’s U-turn. Yet, US nonfarm payrolls in focus; Bitcoin prices hit 40k before pulling back slightly.

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Australian Dollar Outlook: Strong Greenback Halts AUD/USD Rally

January 08, 2021 at 9:10 AM, GMT
 

Expanded stimulus bets pushed the US Dollar higher after a move in the U.S. political landscape, putting pressure on the high-flying Australian Dollar.

Bloomberg Global Financial News

Updated on September 22, 2020 at 9:23 pm 

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