November 9,2022 04:41 AM ET
By:AnalysisWatch
Sellers seem to remain clustered around the 1.0100 area, making it difficult for the EURUSD to retest or break above that key resistance area so far on Wednesday.
The EURUSD gives up some gains after three consecutive daily advances and in response to another failed attempt to revisit or break above the 1.0100 area, always on the back of a lackluster bounce in the dollar.
The recent turnaround in sentiment around the greenback, especially after the October payrolls, has been underpinning the strong bullish bias in the pair and the rest of the risk-associated universe.The movement in the money markets, however, has been quite remarkable, with yields on both sides of the ocean taking on water at the upper end of the recent range.
There is no noteworthy data in Euroland today, with the exception of a 10-year Bunds auction later in the session.In the US, MBA mortgage applications for the first quarter will be released, followed by wholesale inventories and speeches by FOMC members J. Williams and T. Barkin.
Meanwhile, price action around the euro is expected to closely follow dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns, and the divergence between the Fed and the ECB. The Fed's recent decision to raise interest rates and the likelihood of a long-term tightening stance now loom as major headwinds to a sustainable recovery for the pair.
In addition, growing speculation about a possible recession in the region, which is underpinned by declining sentiment indicators as well as the incipient slowdown in some fundamentals, adds to the fragile sentiment around the euro in the long term.
At the moment, the pair is down 0.09% at 1.0061, and a break of 0.9730 (the November 3 monthly low) would target 0.9704 (the October 21 weekly low) en route to 0.9631 (the October 13 monthly low). On the other hand, initial resistance is at 1.0096 (the November 8 monthly high), followed by 1.0197 (the September 12 monthly high), and finally 1.0368 (the August 12 monthly high).