Title: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes $1,804 and $1,800 as US Treasury yields spike
Jan 18, 2022 4:40AM ET
Ahead of next week's FOMC decision, Fed policymakers have gone into a blackout period. What's moving US Treasury yields, the dollar, and gold? With markets back in full swing on Tuesday, investors are anticipating an escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which could send the risk premium soaring and push the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond to a two-year high of 1.85%.US interest rates have also jumped, pushing the dollar up 50 basis points on speculation of an aggressive Fed rate hike in March.
In the absence of relevant US economic data to be released on Tuesday, Fed sentiment and geopolitical tensions will continue to influence gold prices. Higher yields tend to weigh on the non-interest-bearing gold price.
The Technical Confluences Detector shows gold testing bullish commitments at $1,811, which is strong resistance at the SMA10 on a daily basis and the SMA100 on a four-hour basis.
The next support awaits at the $50 DMA of $1,808, below which a tight cluster of healthy cushions is forming at $1,804. At this point, the daily SMA200 coincides with the 61.8% weekly Fibonacci factor and the daily S3 pivot point.
The last line of defence for gold bulls is at $1,800, the 38.2% Fibonacci limit on a monthly basis.
On the other hand, the previous day's low at $1,813 offers immediate resistance, followed by the intersection of the SMA5 and the 4-hour SMA10.
The 23.6% Fibonacci weekly high at $1,820 will prove to be the next significant upside barrier.
The bulls will then attack the previous day's high at $1,823.